Flood Risk Assessment of Guddu Barrage using Gumbel’s Distribution

Flood Risk Assessment of Guddu Barrage using Gumbel’s Distribution

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Author(s): Saba Naz, Mirza Jawwad Baig, Syed Inayatullah, Tanveer Ahmed Siddiqi, Muhammad Ahsanuddin

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DOI: 10.18483/ijSci.2024 40 207 33-38 Volume 8 - Apr 2019


This paper presents the results of the study carried out on Indus River at Guddu barrage, to analysis flood frequency using Gumbel distribution for the prediction of next flood by using pervious data. The catastrophic flood of 1976,1986 and 2010 were the examples of heavy flood in the last 50 years .The Gumbel distribution has been applied to the annual records of 36 years flood peak discharge data .The trend line equation suggest a 0.983 coefficient of determination, which shows that there is no significant differences between recorded and predicted flood flows. At the area of study, information of preceding 18 flood’s peaks of 36 years have been collected and analyzed for flood risk assessment. The forecast peak flows were obtained by proposed Gumbel’s flood frequency and analytical method have been used for different return periods.


Flood Frequency Analyses, Probability, Gumbel Distribution, Return Period, Guddu Barrage, Indus River


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