The impact of climate on water, environment and biodiversity is a conventional fact and can be observed throughout the world, especially each south Asian region like Pakistan. The Indus River region of Pakistan is going through phenomenal changes due to climate variations: persistent heat waves, recurring sultry cyclones, frequent floods and prolonged droughts. Floods are one of the important reasons for the life loss, damages of the globe. Pakistan faces large amounts of catastrophic flooding from the past 30 or 35 years, due to the influences of their variability, the dynamics and uncertainty owing to monsoon rainfalls and snow/glacier melts or combination of both. To study the impact of the dynamics and variability a profound mathematical analysis of local temperature and rainfall change projections, in unexpected variations of river flow is essential. This paper provides the realistic approaches by utilizing trend analysis using the techniques of least square estimation and nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and also incorporates multiple linear regression technique (MLR) based on step-wise method. Trend analysis is an important tool used to enumerate and elucidate the dynamics of the hydroclimatic stochastic system. MLR is a mathematical modelling method, used to explain the interrelations of the phenomena and explore their variation relative to the other dependent variable. These methods employed twenty-seven year data of Indus River flows (seven stations), precipitation (four cites) and temperature (three cites). The results show decline of rainfall and rising trend of temperature found in most of the cities, whereas, good explanation of the river flow establishes with MLR in upper stations. The results of this paper may help to understand the space-time dynamics and variability of river flow phenomena. Moreover, It will be useful for agriculture, hydropower generation and water management sectors in planning the future scenarios and forecasting of leading catastrophic occasions.
Indus River, Trend, Dynamics, Temperature, Rainfall, MLR
- Hassan SA, Ansari MR. Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques. 2010 Mar 29;55(2):250-65.
- Archer DR, Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Shah SM. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2010 Aug 27;14(8):1669-80.
- Siddiqui MJ, Haider S, Gabriel HF, Shahzad A. Rainfall–runoff, flood inundation and sensitivity analysis of the 2014 Pakistan flood in the Jhelum and Chenab river basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2018 Oct 26;63(13-14):1976-97.
- Ahmad I, Fawad M, Mahmood I. At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Stream Flows in Pakistan Using Robust Estimation Methods. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 2015 Nov 1;24(6).
- Inam A, Clift PD, Giosan L, Tabrez AR, Tahir M, Rabbani MM, Danish M. The geographic, geological and oceanographic setting of the Indus River. Large rivers: geomorphology and management. 2007 Dec 21:333-45.
- Hassan SA, Ansari MR. Hydro-climatic aspects of Indus River flow propagation. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2015 Dec 1;8(12):10977-82.
- Sharif M, Archer DR, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N. Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2013 Apr 19;17(4):1503-16.
- Rasul G, Mahmood A, Sadiq A, Khan SI. Vulnerability of the Indus delta to climate change in Pakistan. Pakistan journal of meteorology. 2012 Jan;8(16).
- Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water resources research. 1982 Feb;18(1):107-21.
- Masood A, Shah SM, Malik MA, Khan GD, Gul S, Haq I. Collective and individual month-wise data management approach on the data collected in Kalam (Swat) through multiple regression analysis. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture. 2009;25(4):557-61
Cite this Article:
International Journal of Sciences is Open Access Journal.
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License.
Author(s) retain the copyrights of this article, though, publication rights are with Alkhaer Publications.