The hydrological system of a country significantly influences the ecological, agricultural and consequently the economic structure. Since, the accessibility of water resources has governed the power generation sector and agronomic establishments of the region like Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan is sensitive in climatic variation and faces gradually higher threats regarding rainfall variability, floods and prolonged droughts. Sometimes, these climate change impact embedded with the high frequency and strength of extreme events caused by global warming. These extreme situations occur mostly in the hydrological phase that occurs because of the unexpected variations in temperature and rainfall. UN-ICC report pronounces that Pakistan is in top four unsafe countries that are undesirably affected by climate variability. The water stress Index established by Mallin Falkenmark conferred that Pakistan is in the list of countries that can face serious scarcity of water as its population is continuously increasing and water resources are shrinking. A perfect assessment of upcoming water resources under fluctuating climatic situations is significant for water resource availability and management. This study analyses the impact of hydroclimatic and stochastic conditions of river flow prediction and forecast of Jhelum River flow at Mangla station (second major reservoir of Pakistan, serve about 6 million hectares of cultivated area and generating 6% (about 1000MW) of the country’s electrical power generation). Forecasting of river flow is helpful in understanding the prevailing situation of climate variations. The preliminary analysis of 34 years monthly data (Jan. 1976 to December 2010) of river flow, temperature and precipitation indicates that the precipitation of the seasonal and monsoon rainfall (June to September) is dominant on the yearly cycle. During these months the temperature rise is at its year maximums, so, the melting of snow/glaciers contributes a large amount of water in the natural river flow. The autocorrelation function (ACF) shows a strong seasonal variation of river flow, correlation analysis shows that the strong contribution of monsoon and orographic regular runoff is significant. To include the embedded periodic variation of the river flow, seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) will be used to predict and forecast the river flow. Additionally, the stepwise linear regression is applied to analysis the regular flow along with climatic variations by multiple linear regression show good results and will be helpful in forecasting of the river flow on monthly and annual basis. However, the reduce prediction and forecast accuracy shows that the inconsistence stochastic and hydroclimatic influenced river flows variation from the last 20 years, may be caused by Global and local impact. The results of this study are hoped to contribute considerably in current and future hydrological researches and studies, particularly in the Jhelum River flow at Mangla station of Pakistan.
Hydroclimatic, Stochastic, Time Series, Jhelum River, Monsoon
- Hassan SA, Ansari MR. Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques. 2010 Mar 29;55(2):250-65.
- Alam N, Olsthoorn TN. Sustainable Conjunctive Use of Surface and Ground Water: Modelling on the Basin Scale. ECOPERSIA. 2011 May 15;1(1):1-2.
- Archer DR, Fowler HJ. Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology. 2008 Oct 30;361(1-2):10-23.
- Sivakumar B. Nonlinear determinism in river flow: prediction as a possible indicator. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The Journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group. 2007 Jun;32(7):969-79.
- Sharif M, Archer DR, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N. Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2013 Apr 19;17(4):1503-16.
- Khan H, Hassan SA. Stochastic River Flow Modelling and Forecasting of Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences. 2015 Dec 18;11:630-6.
- Saeed S, Munir Sheikh M, Faisal S. Simulations of 1992 flood in river Jhelum using high resolution regional climate model, précis to study the underlying physical processes involved in the extreme precipitation event. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology. 2006 Dec;3(6).
- Raza SM, Mahmood SA, Butt MA, Kaukab IS, Sami J. Flood inundation mapping in Jehlum River and its impact assessment using remote sensing and GIS techniques 2014.
- Qureshi MM, Shakir AS, Lesleighter E. Channel Forming Discharge in Rivers: A Case Study of Jhelum River in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences. 2016 Jun 22.
- De Scally FA. Relative importance of snow accumulation and monsoon rainfall data for estimating annual runoff, Jhelum basin, Pakistan. Hydrological sciences journal. 1994 Jun 1;39(3):199-216.
- Mahmood R, Jia S, Babel M. Potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Kunhar River Basin, Pakistan. Water. 2016 Jan 16;8(1):23.
- Mahmood, R. and Jia, S., 2016. Assessment of impacts of climate change on the water resources of the transboundary Jhelum River basin of Pakistan and India. Water, 8(6), p.246.
- Yaseen M, Nabi G, Latif M. Assessment of climate change at spatiao-temporal scales and its impact on stream flows in mangla watershed. Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences. 2016 Jun 22.
- Nigam R, Bux S, Nigam S, Pardasani KR, Mittal SK. Time series modeling and forecast of river flow. Current World Environment. 2009;4(1):79.
- Hassan SA, Ansari MR. Hydro-climatic aspects of Indus River flow propagation. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2015 Dec 1;8(12):10977-82.
- Box GE, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, Ljung GM. Time series analysis, control, and forecasting . 2015 Hoboken. John Wiley & Sons.
- Akhter M, Ahmad AM. Climate Modeling of Jhelum River Basin-A Comparative Study. Environ Pollut Climate Change. 2017;1(110):2.
- Akhter, M., & Akhter M, Ahanger MA. ANN based climate modeling of Jhelum river basin 2016.
- Akhter M, Ahanger MA. Impact of Climate Change on Jhelum River Basin. 2015
International Journal of Sciences is Open Access Journal.
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License.
Author(s) retain the copyrights of this article, though, publication rights are with Alkhaer Publications.