Expectations of Life and Survival Analysis for a Cohort of University Academic Retirees: A Case Study of University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Author(s): Thaga K, Ajayi, Moses Adedapo, Mokgathle Lucky, Shangodoyin Dahud Kehinde

This is a follow up study of a cohort of academic retirees in retrospective in a well based record assessment. In this study, a preliminary survey was made to determine the mortality and survival profile of retired academic staff retirees of University of Ibadan in Nigeria. From total population of 302 of pensionable 60 to 65 years of age of service and 35 years in service as at year 2012 of retired academic staff retirees surveyed, 109 were randomly selected during the study dates “January 1977 to December 2012”. Simple descriptive frequency count and the Life Table model were identified as the most suitable approach to analyze the demographic characteristics and pattern of mortality; this provides estimates of probabilities of surviving a given number of years after retirement. Since life table is non-parametric procedure for estimating life expectancy at different points and does not produce a measure of precision. We utilised the distribution of the survival and hazard function to give a more elegant and measure precision of life expectancy. The survival probability curves for the males and females respondents indicate that there is no significant difference in the survival probability for the two groups using Mantel-cox test with probability 0.287. There is significant difference between mortality rate of voluntary and compulsory ages of retirees during the period of study of retired academic staff of the university. The survival probability of gender and their duration of service are not significant with probability 0.738, thus one could infer that duration of service before retirement does not have effect on longevity of retired academic staff of the university. The University academic retirees’ median residual life time is 9.07 years.

Cohort, Retirement, Age, Pension, Expectancy, Mortality

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