Modeling of Climatological Conditions over the Past Century in Alexandria, Egypt

Author(s): Mohamed El Raey, Ali El Hadidi

Alexandria City is one of the most vulnerable mega cities of the Mediterranean Sea to potential impacts of climatic change and sea level rise. Analysis of the meteorological data of the city over a long period reveals important aspects of the changes of climatic conditions. One of the most significant consequences of global warming is the increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as heat waves (IPCC, 2007)1. Temperature trends investigated over a whole century. In addition, analysis (including modeling and downscaling) of daily meteorological data have been carried out as prerequisites for proper planning for the city in view of the prevailing climatic changes in the region. Results indicate that: 1. The maximum and mean temperatures in Alexandria city are expected to continue increasing in the next few decades in mean values and rates of extreme events. 2. An increase in the frequency and severity of the heat waves are also expected. 3. The precipitation rates in Alexandria are expected to decrease in the same period. Also, a decrease in the wet day’s percentage and increase in the dry spell days, are expected. Two future scenarios were investigated, A2 and B2 storyline (IPCC special report)

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