Modelling Monthly Rainfall Data of Port Harcourt, Nigeria by Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methods

Modelling Monthly Rainfall Data of Port Harcourt, Nigeria by Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methods

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Author(s)

Author(s): Ette Harrison Etuk, Imoh Udo Moffat, Benjamin Ele Chims

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728 1208 60-67 Volume 2 - Jul 2013

Abstract

Brief review of literature of the well documented seasonal Box-Jenkins modelling is done. Rainfall is a seasonal phenomenon the world over. For illustrative purposes, monthly rainfall as measured in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, is modelled by a (5, 1, 0)x(0, 1, 1)12 seasonal ARIMA model. The time-plot shows no noticeable trend. The known and expected seasonality is clear from the plot. Seasonal (i.e. 12-point) differencing of the data is done, then a nonseasonal differencing is done of the seasonal differences. The correlogam of the resultant series reveals the expected 12-monthly seasonality, and the involvement of a seasonal moving average component in the first place and a nonseasonal autoregressive component of order 5. Hence the model mentioned above. The adequacy of the modelled has been established.

Keywords

Seasonal Time Series, ARIMA model, rainfall, Port Harcourt

References

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International Journal of Sciences is Open Access Journal.
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License.
Author(s) retain the copyrights of this article, though, publication rights are with Alkhaer Publications.

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